The public sentiment regarding the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz is characterized by a blend of support for Iran, skepticism towards military actions, and growing concern about potential disruptions to global oil supply and rising gas prices. Many comments advocate for peaceful resolutions, while others express frustration over dependence on oil and call for energy independence.

Iran

India

Global Oil Producers

scmsteve

Stressedsoul0



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📣 **[Submission Statement by OP](/r/GeopoliticsIndia/comments/1lbdv4s/india_concerned_about_supply_disruptions_in/mxrs8zr/)**:
&gt; SS: Summary: India’s Concern Over Crude Oil Supply Amid Israel-Iran Conflict (June 2025)
&gt;
&gt;India is on high alert over possible crude oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping route—after Israel's airstrikes on Iran caused Brent crude prices to surge over 10%, reaching $74 per barrel. This raises alarm for India, which imports 90% of its energy needs, half of which comes from West Asia.
&gt;
&gt;Key Points:
&gt;
&gt;Conflict Impact: Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure risk escalating into a regional crisis. Iran has threatened retaliation against oil assets in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait.
&gt;
&gt;Strategic Route: The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global crude oil and 25% of LNG trade. If blocked, it would severely disrupt global and Indian supplies.
&gt;
&gt;Government Response: Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri assured that India has sufficient reserves for coming months. A high-level review has been held.
&gt;
&gt;Economic Concerns:
&gt;
&gt;Oil freight and insurance costs are rising.
&gt;
&gt;Marketing margins may shrink due to increased crude prices.
&gt;
&gt;Retail fuel prices likely to stay stable in short term.
&gt;
&gt;India’s import bill and rupee may come under pressure, risking inflation and trade imbalance.
&gt;
&gt;Diversification Cushion: India sources crude from Russia, the US, and West Africa, which could buffer the impact. But logistics costs and risks remain high.
&gt;
&gt;Market Predictions: JPMorgan forecasts oil may touch $120 per barrel if the conflict worsens, triggering inflation globally.
&gt;
&gt;Outlook:
&gt;
&gt;India is in wait-and-watch mode, prepared for short-term shocks, but a prolonged crisis or closure of Hormuz could severely impact energy security and economic stability. 

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GeoIndModBot

Dont support the country supplying you and then get concerned about supply disruptions - hypocrites.

Dogaseven70

SS: Summary: India’s Concern Over Crude Oil Supply Amid Israel-Iran Conflict (June 2025)

India is on high alert over possible crude oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping route—after Israel's airstrikes on Iran caused Brent crude prices to surge over 10%, reaching $74 per barrel. This raises alarm for India, which imports 90% of its energy needs, half of which comes from West Asia.

Key Points:

Conflict Impact: Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure risk escalating into a regional crisis. Iran has threatened retaliation against oil assets in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait.

Strategic Route: The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global crude oil and 25% of LNG trade. If blocked, it would severely disrupt global and Indian supplies.

Government Response: Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri assured that India has sufficient reserves for coming months. A high-level review has been held.

Economic Concerns:

Oil freight and insurance costs are rising.

Marketing margins may shrink due to increased crude prices.

Retail fuel prices likely to stay stable in short term.

India’s import bill and rupee may come under pressure, risking inflation and trade imbalance.


Diversification Cushion: India sources crude from Russia, the US, and West Africa, which could buffer the impact. But logistics costs and risks remain high.

Market Predictions: JPMorgan forecasts oil may touch $120 per barrel if the conflict worsens, triggering inflation globally.


Outlook:

India is in wait-and-watch mode, prepared for short-term shocks, but a prolonged crisis or closure of Hormuz could severely impact energy security and economic stability.

BROWN-MUNDA_

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AutoModerator

That is a good chunk of the global trade passing there, in the trillions annually. Lets just say there will be a regime change pretty quickly.

[deleted]

The US Navy, likely backed by most major world powers, would open it back up within the week. ESPECIALLY if Iran closes it because they feel they’re losing a war with Israel - this is the sort of thing the US Military excels at. Look how quickly we took the whole Afghanistan, a landlocked country without any nearby major US bases (at the time). Now imagine a drastically smaller geographical area, within easy reach of the Navy, a very short distance from major bases and weapons stockpiles in the ME and, in a pinch, Diego Garcia. 

There’s no way the Iranians hold the straits for any significant amount of time.

leostotch

Yeah.. Iran lost half its Navy in 24 hours the last time the tried that garbage. [operation Praying Mantas](https://youtu.be/d5v6hlRyeHE?feature=shared)

Why would they do that? Doing so would deal major economic setbacks to both the EU AND China, Iran would be effectively alienating most of the world’s political factions, to the benefit of nobody, not even themselves.

Whereishumhum-

What's funny is that it would destroy China completly while the US could just block it's export of petrol and refined products to protect US consumers from pump inflation to limit far right craziness, which would hurt the rest of global economy obviously but still...china would be kaput in a few weeks lmao.

RealBaikal

It’s doubtful that Iran would ever take the action of closing the Strait. It would immediately lead to US military intervention as well as military action by many of the NATO allies. The risk of wider war and severe disruption to the Iranian economy as well as the world economy would be the certain outcome. The most Iran could do would be to the Strait temporarily for a few days at most. Iran is no match for these forces. They would be unable to hold the Strait. And the West would have the perfect excuse to attack Iran as many have wanted to do for years.

Lord_Vesuvius2020

1) Reject the premise. Their navy is a GD joke. Bunch of speed boats. 

2) Even if they could do this, they would be choking off their primary source of cash.

FrankArmhead

The houtis in sandals shake the world. We needed a coalition to keep them at bay. The comments here make it sound like YOU are all ready to go invade a country and keep the straight open.  Nato and the usa lost in Afghanistan my friends. Let's be realistic, this is not good for anyone. 

mancho98

To answer your question, we will take a look back in history to a little conflict known to the US military as Operation Praying Mantis. Iran tried this once already and unfortunately for them lost half of their navy in the span of 8 hours. I don't think they would consider doing it again, but you never know, history has a way of repeating itself.

c0Y0T3cOdY

Some really ignorant views on this thread. Yes Iran has the capability to close the Strait, and yes it would have major economic consequences. "Just invade them" is not going to work.

AssumedPersona

Though feasible, it is tough, if Iran does go for that option, it will also be afftecting the trade and profits of other Crude Oil producers in the region, as of now, other Arab Oil producers have not openly supported any such blockade, the pseudo ban on Russian Oil in Europe and elsewhere coupled with this will, will lead to serious action against Iran ir other countries going for it, people have seen once in the past what could happen globally, and, most of Europe is in bad shape relatively, economically. This step, if taken has the potential for a major self goal for Iran, given the current geopolitical situation.

B1TCHMANN

They'd never do that because it's much more effective to just proxy through other groups. They're not stupid in this regard.  They know how to play the game.

socialcommentary2000

Does anybody ever remember what happens to countries when they fuck with world oil production? It is going to turn into the Strait of Freedom real quick.

Someone will have a certain colourful revolution! It's not a coincidence that the US hasn't had a revolution in so many decades. It's because there's no US embassy.

hariseldon2

It's hilarious that anybody is considering this as a real possibility. Sure they may "close" it for a few weeks at best and then they won't have a functional military and/or government.

Careful_Industry_834

If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, US &amp; allies can just blockade the Gulf of Oman &amp; its opening to the Arabian Sea. Just like other Middle East powers Iran is also dependent on the Sea trade for its export &amp; import. It’s lose-lose situation for the world &amp; Iran.

No-Inevitable6869

I don’t think the strait will ever be closed (in this conflict specifically) - us navy is positioned so close that Iran would have to attack the fleet first. 

This inevitably is a direct declaration of war on the US, I just can’t see it happening. Not to say that logistics would still be affected and the price rises, mind

Curtispritchard101

Oil companies are always undervalued bc investing in oil isn't popular. When oil hits 60 a barrel you buy oil, regardless of what's going on in the world. A price that low doesn't last. 


That's what I did anyways and it worked out great. 

Historical-Egg3243

What you mean IF it escalates? Israel bombed the shit out of Iran lmao

Dealer_Existing

Ultimately, oil spikes are short-lived whether via war or financial engineering (looking at you, 2008). Thankfully, so are crashes to well below sustaining levels (2016, 2020). Generally selling oil exposure into shocks has paid off better than getting long.

The reasons to buy oil stocks are, IMO:
- Industry capex has been low relative to cash flow for  few years, and is unlikely to change near term, in part because US Shale keeps pushing back its maturity date despite forecasts to the contrary

Sets up a good decade of solid ROIC for oil names, at least from their oil business (the less said about forays into renewables the better).

underwater45

That it's not a value investing mentality.  That is a short term traders view

ContractNo1561

Experts were calling for $200 crude when Russia invaded Ukraine.  Obviously never came close.

DontForgetTheDivy

They don’t, they gave that outcome the lowest probability

Carlos_Tellier

Your time to buy was a few days ago. It'll be a sell the news event

Few-Statistician286

baconcheeseburger33

Chances of escalation are minimal. so, if they move a lot now, i'm buying the dip/selling the high.

Pietes

Longjumping-Fix-8951

CPI inflation would rise and interest rates would not go down

Then come debt and recession 

Trump would try to manipulate the oil market as much as possible to correct it 

All about inflation and rates

at0mheart

LoudNoises94

Nope, high volatility. Gotta time if/when prices correctly sharply.

Dull_Wrongdoer_3017

if you're going to be trading volatility why don't you do call options on 3x leveraged oil bets for the ultimate wild ride

kakotakafuji

Born_Swiss

FormalAd7367

Why would it be 120? Iran is a tiny exporter.... And they would maybe be able to close straight of hormuz for 1 hour tops before they get reked

Delta27-

No I do not want to make money on wars and conflicts

BestRequirement7539

Fuck. Now I know why Buffet keeps buying OXY

bwjxjelsbd

Obviously, oil was at good prices, so a good time to buy. With or without any war. And energy demand is only going up.

8700nonK

I was buying oil stocks hand over fist as the price slid down. XOM, PBR-A, and a smattering of Canadian junior producers. I may not be happy with what they do over the next 6 months but over the next 6 years I’ll be very happy

2A4_LIFE

spikes in oil prices &gt;&gt; you buy crude oil futures, not stocks.

nothing to do about stocks since those levels are not stable (check the chart), I've seen that narrative at least 200 times in the last days so I had to make a statement about this.

_Kenway

It'll go up regardless because the conflict has already done infrastructure damage &amp; the market is panicky.  Could buy for a swing.  Not me, I'm already balls deep in oil but would trim positions if ATHs start getting close

RockClimbs

No oil stocks are shit and I don’t want to get left holding them when it drops.

Idontlistenatall

This leads to job cuts, higher inflation and a blow to an already failing global economy which is already in the shambles after the covid crisis, tariff war against the world, Russia Ukraine war, sudan civil war etc and now this.

cnut-baldwiniv

Tensions between Iran and Israel have heightened concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime chokepoint for global oil transport, risking disruptions to oil flows and spiking prices.

Strait of Hormuz and Global Oil Supply

Why This Matters

Public Sentiment Summary

Highlighted Comments

Parties Involved

What the people want